When Republicans chose Kevin McCarthy as their speaker in January, Democrats guffawed.
It took 15 ballots, a good deal of public humiliation and a lot of concessions, but McCarthy finally obtained his career goal of becoming speaker of the House.
He brought to the job a bland public persona and a reputation for being malleable.
He also inherited an unenviable task: With a slim 222-213 majority, a united Democratic caucus could outvote him any time more than four Republicans dissented.
Potential sources of dissent surrounded him.
Some hardline fiscal conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus, such as Texas’ Chip Roy, were prepared to hold McCarthy’s feet to the fire to demand he rein in federal spending.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, new Republicans from moderate districts in New York and California gave McCarthy his majority, and their commitment to using unpopular tactics such as debt-limit fights or government shutdowns to pursue budget cuts was questionable.
Then there were the people who dissent for fun and profit.
Headline-grabbing MAGA members such as Florida’s Matt Gaetz just enjoyed the public spectacle of grandstanding against McCarthy, who is easily painted as an establishment swamp creature in spite of his assiduous courtship of Donald Trump.
At the time, many observers thought McCarthy would have to settle for putting the speaker line on his resume and get nothing done.
Democratic consultant Doug Schoen wrote that it was a “pyrrhic victory.” “The idea that the Republican House majority could advance a substantive agenda — which, to be sure, was already unlikely — has officially been left behind,” he declared, saying “we can expect few — if any — substantive accomplishments from the House.”
The Associated Press’ Lisa Mascaro wrote that “the semblance of House GOP unity is all but certain to be temporary.”
Even my National Review editor, Phil Klein, wrote that McCarthy was “Elected Speaker in Name Only.”
Vanity Fair’s Eric Lutz was blunter: “Let’s Face It: Kevin McCarthy is Screwed.”
After McCarthy failed to prevent his caucus from yelling at President Joe Biden during the State of the Union address, MSNBC’s Alex Wagner concluded, “McCarthy has no power in that caucus,” and Lawrence O’Donnell crowed, “This is over for McCarthy. The year is over.”
What a difference a few months makes. With the federal government soon to hit its legal debt limit, the president won’t be able to keep spending money without Congress agreeing to raise it.
In the past, debt-ceiling raises have often provided Congress the leverage to extract a lot of concessions from the White House.
The eight biggest deficit-cutting laws passed since 1985 were all attached to debt-limit hikes, by Democratic and Republican Congresses alike.
Democrats, however, have vowed not to negotiate anymore.
Biden assumed McCarthy would not be able to pass a plan to raise the debt ceiling because he could never find common ground among the people making the biggest demands, the people least interested in a protracted fight and the people who just want to say they voted No.
Biden could afford to take a hard line because he figured McCarthy would fold without putting any chips on the table.
Wednesday evening, however, McCarthy got his caucus to pass a plan that would give Biden his debt-ceiling increase but only attached to a laundry list of things Republicans want.
The package passed 217-215, with only Gaetz and three other Republicans voting no.
One more defection, and McCarthy would have been undone, but he made the compromises necessary to get it done.
The package slows the growth of federal spending, rolls back student-loan forgiveness and money for thousands of new IRS agents, claws back unspent pandemic funds and adds work requirements for certain welfare and Medicaid benefits.
It’s far from everything Republicans wanted, but it’s also far from nothing — far enough that McCarthy has room to trade off parts of the bill and still get a deal with some real concessions.
The White House continues to bluster, calling Republicans hostage-takers for trying to legislate instead of signing a blank check.
Biden is sure to challenge the resolve of McCarthy and his caucus, and many Democrats still believe that all the political blame for any confrontation can be dumped on the GOP.
But some Democratic senators are starting to talk about the need for compromise.
Now it’s McCarthy who can afford to hold his cards until he sees what Joe has.