After months of speculation and consternation, it’s finally over: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have a deal.
Baltimore inked the former MVP to a five-year deal on Thursday worth $260 million with $185 million guaranteed, according to multiple reports, just hours before the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The deal also solidified the Ravens’ betting odds in the Super Bowl market ahead of the upcoming NFL season – though not as much as you might expect.
Ravens’ title odds shorten after signing Lamar Jackson
Entering Thursday, Baltimore was dealing at 30/1 at BetMGM to win it all in 2023.
That ranked behind 11 other teams ahead of this season and would have marked the longest preseason price for the Ravens since 2019, when they entered the year at 40/1 before ripping off a 14-2 record behind the league’s unanimous MVP.
After news broke of Jackson’s mega-deal on Thursday, the Ravens saw their title odds tightened to 22/1 – a modest bump from their previous price, but still behind eight other teams in the Super Bowl market.
So why didn’t those odds move more for a team securing one of the best quarterbacks in the league?
For one, speculation of a pending Jackson deal was already baked into that 30/1 price, which was even shorter at some other shops.
There was still uncertainty about whether the two sides would come to terms, but after a quiet free-agency period that saw zero teams even entertain an offer sheet, it became clear that Baltimore was the likeliest home for Jackson in 2023.
Part of that hesitation from other teams was likely tied to Jackson’s injury concerns, which is arguably the biggest reason why the Ravens are still dealing outside of the top tier of contenders even with their star quarterback locked up.
At its best, Baltimore is clearly one of the elite teams in the entire league – we saw that on full display in 2019 and at times during the three seasons since.
But the risk profile is also significantly higher for this group, which saw each of its last two seasons end with Jackson on the sidelines.
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His health will be one of the biggest storylines of the 2023 season, both for the Ravens and the league at large.
If Jackson can remain on the field into January and February, this price will look like a screaming deal in hindsight.
And if he can’t?
Baltimore will once again be watching much, if not all, of the postseason from home.