So, can the Celtics do it again?
I’m not ready to trust the Celtics yet, but I think they’ll come out with energy and efficiency at home in Game 5.
And I’m making two bets on that hunch.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 odds
Spread: Heat +8 (-110) vs. Celtics -8 (-110)
Moneyline: Heat (+240) vs. Celtics (-305)
Total: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)
Odds via Caesars, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction
(8:30 p.m. ET. TNT)
The Celtics are beginning to see some much-needed shooting regression.
After shooting an uncharacteristic 29.2% from 3 in the first three ECF games, the C’s nailed 18 of their 45 3-point attempts in Game 4, suitable for a 40% clip.
Meanwhile, the Heat are also beginning to see some much-needed shooting regression.
After shooting 48% from 3 in their three wins, they shot just 8-for-32 from deep in Game 4, good for a 25% clip.
The Celtics have had many issues during this series, but poor shooting luck has doomed them.
Luckily, that might finally be in the rearview mirror.
If that’s the case, anything is possible (Kevin Garnett-related pun intended).
I think the Celtics know that, so I expect them to play intensely in Game 5.
When the Celtics are playing at their best and most focused, they’re the best two-way team in the NBA.
I want to back the C’s here.
Yet, I can’t get over the sheer coaching, execution, and situational awareness disadvantage the Celtics are at.
Erik Spoelstra has coached circles around Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics have played dumb basketball in important moments, and the Heat have consistently out-played the Celtics in the clutch.
Essentially, you can’t trust the Celtics to play 48 minutes of poised team basketball.
But we should be able to trust them to play 24 minutes before the game gets into crunch time.
Per Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, The Celtics have a +12.7 net rating in the first half of games at TD Garden during these playoffs, while the Heat have a -6.7 net rating in the first half of road playoff games.
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Combine the trends with recent shooting regression for both teams, and the Celtics should grab an early lead at home in Game 5.
However, the C’s need to couple solid shooting with lockdown defense to achieve this goal.
When the Celtics are playing at their best (likely in the first half), they are one of the tougher, lengthier defensive teams in the NBA.
Meanwhile, per Chris Raybon of The Action Network, Eastern Conference first-half unders in Games 5, 6, and 7 of a playoff series are 42-14 since 2018, when the total is below 115.
A $100 bettor would have generated a 43.9% ROI betting every one of these 1H unders.
So, combine those trends with the Celtics’ defensive potential, and I’ll also bank on a low-scoring first half.
Altogether, look for an energetic, engaged, talented Boston team to lock down Miami and take a commanding first-half lead in Game 5. And bet accordingly.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 picks
Celtics 1H -4.5 (-115)
1H under 110 (-110)
(Odds provided by Caesars)