Happy Friday! Welcome back for another breakdown of the PrizePicks MLB board.
We have another loaded Friday night slate with 28 of the 30 teams in action.
Only the Wrigley afternoon game featuring the Cubs and Orioles starts before 7:05 ET, so we have plenty of options tonight.
Let’s jump right into some of my favorite selections.
Domingo German less than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
German has put together a very solid season, even if it has come with some foreign-substance (“sticky stuff”) controversy along the way.
He has posted a solid 3.49 ERA that is mostly supported by estimators like SIERA (4.12) and xFIP (4.15).
His strikeout rate sits roughly around league average at 24.0%. Despite solid results so far this season, there are multiple reasons to pick against German today.
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First, he has averaged just 85.7 pitches per start (excluding the start where he was ejected for a foreign substance after just 37 pitches).
He has only been so efficient because of an unsustainable .207 BABIP.
Also, he faces the Red Sox today, who own the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.5%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Their projected lineup has struck out at just a cumulative 18.3% rate versus righties this season.
Finally, he just pitched against this Red Sox offense last week.
Back-to-back starts against the same opponent historically leads to fewer strikeouts and a shorter outing the second time around.
German only recorded 5 strikeouts in his matchup with them last Saturday.
I think he records less than 4.5 strikeouts in Fenway tonight.
Tylor Megill less than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Megill has had a disaster of a season so far, with a 5.14 ERA through 13 starts.
The decline in his measurable skills has been drastic, as his strikeout rate sits at just 16.9% and his walk rate is all the way up to 12.1%.
He has posted more than 4.5 strikeouts in just 3 of his 13 outings this year.
And now, he gets a difficult matchup against a Cardinals offense that has posted a .324 wOBA and 106 wRC+ this season despite underperforming expectations as a team overall.
The Cardinals have struck out at the seventh-lowest rate (21.6%) in MLB this season, and they have walked at the seventh-highest rate (9.1%).
The Cardinals should be able to use Megill’s lack of command against him and run up his pitch count.
I think he records less than 4.5 strikeouts in a short outing today.
Zac Gallen more than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gallen has not been quite as dominant lately as he had been to begin this season, but he is still a significantly above average MLB starter.
He owns a 27.0% strikeout rate on the season against just 5.5% walks.
He also pitches deep into games, with an average of slightly over 94 pitches and 6 innings per start.
Today, he gets a matchup against Cleveland who ranks fifth-worst in MLB with a .294 wOBA and 85 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
The downside of the matchup is Cleveland strikes out at the lowest rate (19.1%) in the league versus righties.
But we are getting a discount on the line here, as Gallen has recorded more than 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 14 starts this season.
I think Gallen has a great chance to make it through at least 6 innings with limited damage, and I trust his stuff enough to think he can rack up at least 6 strikeouts despite Cleveland’s proficiency for contact.
Bryan Woo more than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Woo was a 6th-round draft pick of the Mariners just two years ago in 2021.
He flew through three levels of the minor leagues in 2022, dominating with at least a 31% strikeout rate at each stop.
Seattle decided to give him a call to the big leagues after he continued his domination in Double-A with a 34.3% strikeout rate to begin this season.
He has not yet slowed down, as he has posted a 33.3% strikeout rate through his first two MLB starts.
Those first two starts came against two very good offenses in the Rangers (120 wRC+) and Angels (109 wRC+).
Today, he gets a matchup with the White Sox (87 wRC+), which is an easier test than his first two.
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Woo was up to 81 pitches in his last start against the Angels, and he should be afforded that type of leash again tonight.
He has displayed elite swing-and-miss stuff at every level of the minors (except Triple-A since he skipped right over it).
And it has continued right into the big leagues, as he has produced a solid 13.3% swinging strike rate and an elite 30.5% CSW% through two starts.
There is no reason to think he slows down anytime soon.
I like him to post more than 5 strikeouts tonight against the White Sox.
