We have a playoff-life matchup on tap for this week’s “Thursday Night Football” showdown, as the New Orleans Saints travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.
Both teams are in the thick of the NFC Wild Card hunt with their 7-7 records, but a loss for either would be extremely detrimental to any NFL postseason hope.
Let’s dive in and find some plays for Thursday’s Saints vs. Rams game on PrizePicks.
Cooper Kupp more than 73.5 receiving yards
Don’t expect this game to be a shootout – even with one of the higher totals this week of 46 – but Kupp is probably my favorite player to target in this game.
It’s partially because he’s Cooper Kupp, but also due to the schematics combo of the Rams’ offense and Saints’ defense.
The Saints have allowed the sixth-fewest percentage of targets to players lined up wide this season but have yielded the highest target percentage to players in the slot position.
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Kupp runs the majority of his routes (56%) from the slot, which also leads the team.
Since returning to full strength from an ankle injury he sustained a month ago, Kupp looks like his old self, consistently getting open and catching passes in bunches from Matthew Stafford (22 receptions on 26 targets in the last three weeks).
In a game with massive playoff implications for both teams, bet on Sean McVay to lean on his veteran receiver and call Kupp’s number early and often.
Alvin Kamara more than 18.5 rush yards in first five attempts
Kamara and the Saints’ rushing attack haven’t had much success this season.
He’s averaged 3.91 yards per carry (and 3.89 in the first quarter).
But the Rams have been downright bad in defending the run in the first quarter.
Overall, the Rams yield 4.21 yards per carry with a 43% stuff rate at 1.53 yards before contact per attempt (via FantasyPoints), but they’ve been getting bulldozed on the ground early in games.
In the first quarter, they give way to five yards per carry, the stuff rate drops to 39%, while they yield a massive 2.17 yards before contact per attempt, which is the third-worst mark in the league.
Kamara should see plenty of early touches in what’s essentially in an important playoff-like game for New Orleans.
Let’s trust the data on this one.
Rashid Shaheed more than 32.5 receiving yards
Shaheed played last week against the Giants after missing about a month of action.
He had an underwhelming performance, even with Chris Olave inactive.
Olave is set to be back Thursday, but Shaheed can still contribute a great deal and is worth a look in this game.
Shaheed ran a team-leading 76% of routes last week.
He does not dominate target share by any means, but he has been really good against zone coverage this season.
He leads the Saints in yards per route run and yards per target against zone coverage (outside of A.T. Perry and his very small sample size).
Against man, his numbers are drastically lower, and it’s Olave who dominates the team’s share of volume against that type of defense.
The Rams don’t play an egregious amount of zone, but they do play the 11th-most in the league, so it’s a good look, and Shaheed has a shot at catching a bomb Thursday night.