I am here to write about terrible. Because sometimes when you are in the midst of it, you might not fully appreciate the full level of badness. Sometimes you can’t see the forest for the misery.
The kind you watch and conjure Marv Throneberry or that forces you to research the 1916 Philadelphia A’s or remember just how disillusioning Babe Ruth’s last season as a player was. Usually this involves one club making an assault on all-time bad. But here is a dirty little secret about this season: We might have multiple teams heading toward Dreadful Island.
Consider that when this season began, in the modern history of MLB (since 1900), the three worst winning percentages for a season were the .235 of Connie Mack’s 1916 A’s, the .248 of the Ruth sideshow 1935 Boston Braves and the .250 of Throneberry’s Marvelous 1962 Mets, who still own the season record with 120 losses.
But through Friday, those teams now ranked third, fourth and fifth. That is because the 2024 White Sox (.154) were first followed by the 2024 Marlins (.222). Before a six-run eighth-inning rally Thursday to beat the Padres 10-9, the 2024 Rockies were fourth. The victory moved them to ninth where they were tied with — wait, double-checking here — yep, the 2024 Astros. Those teams began a two-game series Saturday in Mexico City.
Now this is a bit of apples to oranges — taking a snapshot and comparing it to whole seasons. The White Sox, even at 4-22, didn’t have the worst pre-May winning percentage in history (minimum 20 games). Though it did take a team that lost its first 21 games to set this mark as the 1988 Orioles went 1-22 in April.
Those Orioles finished 54-107, which would validate the wisdom of one AL executive who cautioned against anticipating that the White Sox, in particular, were on the road to the pantheon of putrid. The official posited the philosophy that every team will win 54 games and lose 54 — because that is just the reality of a long season, and that it is how you do in the 54 toss-ups that define a season. Thus, even if the White Sox went 0-54 in the third category, they still would — by this theory — go 54-108 and not be the 1962 Mets.
That would suggest a deep breath and perspective that it is a long season, and a first month this bad probably presages a bad season, but not an all-time clunker.
But here is why I am wondering if historic awfulness is coming, maybe for a few teams:
1. MLB.com ranked the White Sox farm system 20th out of 30, the Rockies 21st, the Astros 27th and the Marlins 29th. Help is not on the way.
2. Many of the few quality veterans on these bad teams could be auctioned off at the trade deadline.
3. The enlargement a few years back to three wild cards per league has more teams not conceding during the season. Thus, the bad clubs will stick out (and be picked upon) more than ever, as their already bad talent base worsens with trades and without the influx of quality prospects.
Nevertheless, I still find it hard to believe the Astros, who last October were in their seventh straight ALCS, can be this bad (7-19 going into the weekend). Their downside to me is the 2023 Cardinals — who, after an extended period of winning, went 10-19 last April, ended up being deadline sellers and finished 71-91, their worst record since 1995 — but not an historically awful one.
The Rockies tend to play well enough at home (or more likely, their opponents don’t adapt as well to altitude) to avoid infamy. Last season, for example, Colorado was 37-44 at home and 22-59 on the road en route to 103 losses. From 2019-23, the Rockies actually had a winning record at Coors Field (181-173) and the majors’ worst road record (117-236). They appear particularly atrocious this season, but as the rally Thursday against San Diego emphasized, weird stuff happens at Coors.
The White Sox and Marlins, though, simply do nothing well. They had two of the three worst scoring offenses, the two worst defenses by Defensive Runs Saved, and were 26th (Marlins) and 29th (White Sox) in ERA.
They will have to do a lot of work (and winning) to avoid joining the 1916 Athletics, who fell into disarray as Mack sold or traded off the stars of his 1910, ’11 and ’13 champions and ’14 pennant winner; the 1935 Braves, who brought in a 40-year-old, clearly done Ruth to try to attract fans for this woeful franchise amid what turned out to be a false promise that he would become the manager (he instead retired six weeks into the season); and the lovable, laughable 1962 expansion Mets.
The Marlins haven’t been an expansion team since joining the majors in 1993 with the Rockies. Ten years later they won their second World Series. That was the last time they made the playoffs in a 162-game schedule until last season. But the 2023 Marlins were an unrepeatable 33-14 in one-run games and a revealing 12-27 against the teams with the seven-best records. Owner Bruce Sherman controversially forced out GM Kim Ng and hired Peter Bendix from the Rays to try to find the Tampa Bay magic of low payroll, high performance.
But the only major league free-agent signing, shortstop Tim Anderson, made an already bad infield defense worse while so far showing his 2023 offensive dive was no aberration.
The strength of the team was expected to be the rotation. But Eury Perez, like ace Sandy Alcantara, needed Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. Braxton Garrett, after a 2023 breakout, has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder impingement. The Marlins’ best trade chip, starter Jesus Luzardo, had the worst qualified ERA in the NL (6.58), and was scratched from his start Friday and subsequently placed on the IL with elbow tightness. Meanwhile, perhaps their second-best trade chip, power lefty reliever Tanner Scott, has retreated to his wild ways (12 walks in 10 ²/₃ innings).
The White Sox are bleaker. They traded their only quality starter, Dylan Cease, to San Diego two weeks before the season began. Late-signing free agent Mike Clevinger might make it better soon in a rose-in-a-sewer kind of way (the team’s 77 ERA-plus was currently the second worst in the last half century).
The White Sox’s best player, center fielder Luis Robert Jr., should return from a hip flexor strain around June 1. But the White Sox are so many players and so far from winning that they will have to consider seeing if they can do with Robert what the Nationals did with Juan Soto — namely, trade a star outfielder with years of control for a haul of upside prospects. Robert has three years at $55 million left after this season if his options are picked up.
Even if they decide to wait to the offseason to market Robert, one star will be hard pressed to alter the trajectory of this season away from not just bad, but historically so.
