On April 4, the Mets were 0-5.
They then won 12 of their next 15 games to claw back into the divisional and playoff races.
But they’ve cooled off again, losing 10 of their past 15 games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays over the weekend.
But the Cardinals are a horrific baseball team, and after the Mets won the series opener Monday night, I expect another solid performance Tuesday behind Jose Butto.
Mets vs. Cardinals prediction
(7:45 p.m. ET, SNY)
Butto is pitching half-decent in his sophomore season, posting a 2.57 ERA across his first five starts, three resulting in Metropolitan wins.
He added a sinker and a slider last season, the former helping him induce more weak contact (85 mph average exit velocity against) and the latter generating more whiffs (58% on 87 thrown this year).
He’s generating a ton of whiffs and swinging strikes, resulting in an impressive 27% strikeout rate this season.
I worry that his hot start is sustainable, as his underlying stuff metrics (88 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal) and control issues (12% career walk rate) imply he’s over-performing. The same goes for his expected run indicators (2.57 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 4.09 xFIP).
But I can confidently say one thing about Butto: He’s much better than Miles Mikolas.
The Cardinals’ 35-year-old starting pitcher is on pace to post a career-worst season. His fastball velocity and swinging strike have dropped in the early season, and his batted-ball profile is a mess.
Mikolas can’t miss bats (29 strikeouts in 38 innings) and allows too much hard contact (45% hard-hit rate, 18th percentile among qualified pitchers), a deadly combination.
As a result, he’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA across his first seven starts, five of which resulted in Cardinal losses.
I’m willing to fade Mikolas against most MLB starting pitchers, including Butto.
I’m also willing to fade the Cardinals as much as possible in the short term.
There isn’t much to like about the club when the lineup isn’t hitting.
The defense has significantly regressed, the rotation is a mess and the bullpen is only moderately better (4.53 ERA over the past two weeks).
Worst of all, the Cardinals are not hitting, ranking 26th among MLB lineups in wRC+ (83).
They’ve seemingly gotten worse, posting an OPS less than .600 across the past two weeks, the worst in MLB during the stretch.
Paul Goldschmidt has been atrocious (67 OPS+), Nolan Arenado has been merely average (114 OPS+), and younger hitters like Nolan Gorman (70 OPS+) and Jordan Walker (44 OPS+) are slumping.
The Cardinals aren’t hitting, so they’ve sunk to last in the NL Central (15-20) with the fourth-worst run differential in the league (-33).
The Mets aren’t elite, but there’s plenty to like about the squad.
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They’re an above-average lineup (103 wRC+, 15th in MLB) that hits decently well against right-handed pitching (103 wRC+, 11th against the side).
They’re deep and nearly impenetrable in the bullpen, with Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett, Jorge Lopez, Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith combining for 21 earned runs and 116 strikeouts across 85 innings (2.25 ERA, 34% strikeout rate). They’re also much better defensively than the early advanced metrics indicate.
The Cardinals are becoming a near-daily fade for me, especially when Mikolas or another underperforming starting pitcher toes the rubber.
Considering the opponent, I’ll bet on Butto and the Mets as underdogs. I don’t think the Mets should be underdogs when they have the better lineup, bullpen and starting pitcher Tuesday in St. Louis.
Mets vs. Cardinals pick
Mets ML (+110, Caesars)