The Tigers will look to snap their four-game losing skid in Game 2 of an important American League Central battle versus the Guardians on Tuesday.
Let’s take a look at the matchup and make a prediction and pick.
Tigers vs. Guardians odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | +114 | +1.5 (-185) | o8.5 (-110) |
| Guardians | -135 | -1.5 (+154) | u8.5 (-110) |
Tigers vs. Guardians prediction
(6:10 p.m. ET)
Tigers starter Kenta Maeda has struggled to an ERA of 5.02 across 28 2/3 innings of work this season. He will face off against Logan Allen, who owns a comparable ERA of 5.11 in his 37 innings pitched.
Most numbers suggest Maeda should be the slightly superior starter of the two moving forward.
Maeda has pitched to a 4.14 xFIP this season, with a K/BB rate of 3.14. He has been hard-hit 34.8% of the time and owns a Pitching+ rating of 98.
All of those numbers are better than those of Allen, who owns a K/BB rate of only 2.58, has been hard-hit 41.4% of the time, and owns a Pitching+ rating of just 92.
In particular, he has struggled at Progressive Field, where he has allowed a slug rate of .583 this season.
The Guardians have been the better offensive team of the two. They have generated 4.86 runs per game this season, compared to the Tigers’ mark of 3.83.
It seems likely that these lineups will produce runs at more comparable marks the rest of the way though the season.
The Guardians have hit to a fourth-worst xSLG rate of .369 this season, with a fifth-worst xwOBA of .302. Despite those marks, they own the fifth-best OPS in the league with RISP of .835, which has powered their offensive production.
If the Guardians’ BABIP with runners on trends downward, they are going to expose their overall offensive process. Losing outfielder Steven Kwan won’t help things, either.
The Tigers rank above the Guardians in terms of xSLG rating, xwOBA and wRC+ this season. In time, their lineup should start to look as potent as the Guardians’ lineup, if not more.
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Tigers vs. Guardians pick
Maeda profiles as the superior starter in this matchup, and should outperform Allen moving forward.
If the Guardians are to start finding regression in their “clutch” hitting statistics, their run production is going to trend closer to that of the Tigers.
Backing Detroit to win the first five innings at plus-money is my favorite play from this matchup.