While we are all awaiting the year’s second golf major, next week’s PGA Championship, we have a Signature Event this week.
There are 69 golfers set to tee it up at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club, a true championship-level golf course in Charlotte, N.C.. In fact, it has previously hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and the 2022 Presidents Cup, and will play host to the 2025 PGA Championship.
A par-71 course that measures 7,558 yards, Quail Hollow is one of the longest and most difficult courses on the regular PGA Tour schedule. It has classical features with tree-lined fairways and thick rough, and there are water hazards in play on seven of the 18 holes.
With the long length and the fact that there aren’t many forced layups, this is a driver-heavy course. The averaging driving distance at Quail Hollow in 2023 was 304 yards — one of the highest marks of the entire season. This is one of a handful of events on the tour where driving distance is a big advantage.
The greens are average in size (6,600 square feet) and feature bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed. They are difficult to hit on average, which makes iron play and scrambling important.
Essentially, we are looking for golfers this week to bet on who don’t have a major weakness and who are long off the tee.
It also doesn’t hurt to have good course history here, as this is one of the most predictive events on the PGA Tour. In other words, golfers who have played well at Quail Hollow tend to continue to play well there.
Let’s get into this week’s picks.
Wells Fargo Championship top odds
| Golfer | Winner | Top 5 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +700 | +170 | -125 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1000 | +220 | +105 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1400 | +330 | +160 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 | +400 | +190 |
| Max Homa | +2000 | +400 | +200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 | +550 | +240 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 | +500 | +240 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | +500 | +230 |
| Cameron Young | +2500 | +500 | +240 |
Wells Fargo Championship best bets
Wyndham Clark to win (+1600, bet365)
We don’t see golfers win the same PGA Tour event in back-to-back years very often, but it’s certainly not unprecedented.
Clark, who won at Quail Hollow in 2023 as a massive underdog, has been dominant in Signature Events this season. He won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, was runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship, and finished third at the RBC Heritage.
He’s one of the longest hitters in the field and doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He has as much win equity as Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele, and we are getting much better odds on Clark.
Cameron Young to win (+2800, BetRivers)
Young is going to pick up his first win on the PGA Tour sooner rather than later, and I’ve maintained that it will come on a championship-level golf course.
He has contended in several majors in his career and now has a total of seven runner-up finishes. It’s not like he doesn’t know how to win, as he had two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour before earning his PGA Tour card.
He’s one of the best drivers in the world and is elite with his mid and long irons. If he can have a decent week with his putter, I like his chances to contend.
Xander Schauffele top-10 finish (+115, bet365)
This is the safest bet of the week with positive odds because Schaufefle has finished in the top 10 in six of his last nine starts.
He has finished T2 and T14 in his last two stroke-play events at Quail Hollow, a course where he was dominant at the Presidents Cup in 2022.
He’s one of the few golfers on tour that is elite in all aspects of his game. He’s an excellent driver, he’s elite on approach, he’s terrific around the greens, and he’s a good putter.
I see no reason why he can’t post another top-10 finish this week.
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Adam Scott top-10 finish (+375, bet365)
Scott’s T30 finish last week doesn’t jump off the page, but he gained 6.3 strokes ball striking.
This season he has consistent results but inconsistent strokes-gained numbers. He’ll have a good week ball-striking, then he’ll have a good week with the short game, and then he’ll have a good week with some other combination of those categories.
The way I see it, he has the potential to gain in all four aspects and put it all together.
He finished T5 at Quail Hollow last year and tends to play his best on classical golf courses like this one.